BG says In my view, the intellectual work needed by futurology cannot be done with a reductionnist approach but rather with an integrated view. For example, many people in France predict the reduction of car driving (for the reason of gaz emission and taxes) and the increase of public transportation. I think this is unlikely because one has to take into account a wide set of evolutions: reduction of gaz emissions by cars, increasing risks of viral/bacterial epidemy, terrorist attacks, the possibility to filter the air for nanoparticles, societal changes increasing individual choices...etc. If you take into account all these trends, the initial prediction is highly dampened... (03/09/2017 08h18) |